At Deck Expo: It’s the economy
DALLAS, TEXAS —During an expo that displayed the tremendous variety of deck railings, deck vignettes, pool supplies and hot tubs, an analyst took attendees on a dive into the economy.
And with mostly positive findings.
The event was the Deck Expo, co-located with the International Pool Spa Patio Expo. And the speaker was Scott Hackworth, president of Industry Insights.
During a Wednesday-morning keynote presentation here, Hackworth shared some of his and his team’s analysis of government data and industry surveys.
“The economy is rolling. It’s not roaring,” he said. As evidence, he cited a chart reflecting the gross domestic product, a great proxy for the health of the economy, he said. The numbers featured many positives, he said, partly because of resilient spending by consumers.
“There’s an old adage that you should never underestimate Americans ability and willingness to spend,” he said. “And so we have been doing that, we've been doing that pretty well.”
Consumers —specifically home owners —could be spending a lot more. That idea is based on the wealth achieved through home equity. He pointed to stats from the Wall Street Journal that showed about $30 billion of untapped home equity that is “just sitting there.”
“There is so much wealth tied up in the home equity right now, and it is just waiting to be tapped," the analyst said. "It's ready to be put to remodel jobs, ready to be used for improvements and enhancements. And it's just sitting there waiting on things to get favorable enough that they can start tapping into that.”
Overall, there’s about $35 trillion in total home equity, and an average of $350,000 per home, he said.
High interest rates — at about 6.8 percent currently for a 30-year fixed rate — are preventing a lot of people from tapping it. “The magic number we’re looking at is 5.0 to 5.5 percent," he said. "We feel like once that happens, the game will be on." And when might that happen? Industry Insights is looking to 2026.
But there remain many unknowns that could change the forecast.
Pointing to survey results from the Pool & Hot Tub Alliance, Hackworth shared a list top challenges for all companies. Leading the list from the Q3 survey were:
• “Economic factors such as inflation and consumer spending patterns” (71%);
• “Maintaining profitability in the face of rising costs” (56%); and
• “Recruiting and retaining skilled employees” (44%)
These were the same top three found from the first quarter survey.
From the analyst's standpoint, unanswered questions involve the rate of change inflation, the potential for tariffs, the ability of companies to find labor, and overall consumer sentiment.
“Those are concerns that we'll watch,” he said.
