There will be wind: Hurricane forecast sees increase in 2009

The upcoming 2009 hurricane season is expected to be more active than average, according to an expert forecast.

The number of named storms from June 1 to Nov. 30 -- the official hurricane season -- is expected to be 12, compared with the average of 9.6. The findings were announced at the Honeywell Generator booth (#33334) during the National Hardware Show.

Of six major measurements of hurricane activity, four are expected to surpass historic averages. The only metric where a decline in activity is forecast is "intense hurricanes," which is forecast at 2, down from 2.3.

Among the key forecast statistics are:

• The number of named storms: 12, compared with an average of 9.6; • Number of named Storm Days: 55, compared with an average of 49.1; • Hurricanes: 6, compared with an average of 5.9; • Hurricane days: 25, compared with an average of 24.5; • Intense hurricanes: 2 compared with an average of 2.3; and • Intense hurricane days: 5, compared with an average of 5.0.

Philip Klotzbach is a research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, where he is the lead author on the Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts that he publishes along with Dr. William Gray. 

This is the 26th year in which the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project has made forecasts of the upcoming season’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity. These forecasts are based on a statistical methodology derived from 58 years of past data.

The forecast also revealed probabilities for at least one major hurricane landfall in various coastal areas. A major hurricane is defined as a category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane.

The entire U.S. coastline has a 54% probability, compared with an average of 52% for the last century. U.S. East Coast including the peninsula of Florida has a 32% probability, compared with an historic 31%. And the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville stands at 31%, compared with 30% historical.

Joe Kampschroer, VP retail sales and marketing of Milwaukee-based Northshore Power Systems, the exclusive licensee of Honeywell Generator products, said: “Information regarding the amount and degree of severity of projected hurricanes is vital information for this industry, as it prepares to respond to homeowners faced with those disasters, planning their disaster relief efforts and stocking up on key items like plywood, batteries, chain saws and generators.”