Starts down 10.6%

Against a background of hope for an economic recovery and a bottoming out of the housing market, a high-profile industry metric took a double-digit step backward.

Privately owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529,000, according to results released today by the Department of Commerce. That figure represents a 10.6% decline from the revised September rate of 592,000, and a 30.7% drop from October of last year.

The 529,000-figure is the lowest since April, when the rate was 479,000.

The consensus of analysts from market research Web site Briefing.com was calling for a rate of about 600,000.

Single-family starts, the statistic closely watched by home channel suppliers and dealers, also declined in October to a rate of 476,000 -- also the lowest since April. The single-family pace is 6.8% below the revised September figure of 511,000.

Building permits were 4.0% below September, and 24.3% below October 2008.

All four regions of the country showed negative numbers in both a monthly and year-over-year basis, and in both total and single-family starts. The smallest declines occurred in the Midwest, where single-family starts were down 4.8% compared with September; and in the South, where single-family starts were down 4.9% compared with October last year.

One theory behind the low rate was the uncertainty over the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit, which has since been extended and expanded.

"Builders were clearly in a holding pattern in October as the future of the home buyer tax credit hung in the balance," said David Crowe, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. "This is not surprising, given the fact that the tax credit had been the primary driver of construction and sales in the summer and early fall."