Analysts already expect a stronger Christmas
The big-box home improvement retailers are beginning to make room for holiday merchandise.
And as they make the transition, and independents follow the path to Christmas lights and lawn ornaments, The National Retail Federation served a bit of holiday cheer in early October.
The association announced that it expects sales in November and December (excluding autos, gas and restaurant sales) to increase a healthy 4.1% to $616.9 billion, higher than 2013’s actual 3.1% increase during that same time frame.
Holiday sales on average have grown 2.9% over the past 10 years, including 2014’s estimates, and are expected to represent approximately 19.2% of the retail industry’s annual sales of $3.2 trillion. This would mark the first time since 2011 that holiday sales would increase more than 4%.
Online retailers are expected to have even more to celebrate. Shop.org today released its 2014 online holiday sales forecast, expecting sales in November and December to grow between 8% and 11% over last holiday season to as much as $105 billion.
Shop.org forecasts sales based on government data including, consumer credit, disposable personal income, and previous monthly retail sales releases. Holiday non-store sales in 2013 grew 8.6%.
“Retailers could see a welcome boost in holiday shopping, giving some companies the shot in the arm they need after a volatile first half of the year and an uneventful summer,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “While expectations for sales growth are upbeat, it goes without saying there still remains some uneasiness and anxiety among consumers when it comes to their purchase decisions. The lagging economic recovery, though improving, is still top of mind for many Americans.
“Recognizing the need to keep household budgets in line, we expect shoppers will be extremely price sensitive as they have been for quite some time. Retailers will respond by differentiating themselves and touting price, value and exclusivity,” continued Shay.
NRF’s holiday sales forecast is based on an economic model using several indicators including, consumer credit, disposable personal income, and previous monthly retail sales releases. It now includes the non-store category (direct-to-consumer, kiosks and online sales).