Analysis: What if Trump wins?

Back in July, readers responding to an HBSDealer poll pointed to Donald Trump as a leading contender (tied with Jeb Bush) in a crowded field of 18 candidates.

Today, a current HBSDealer reader poll shows the presumptive Republican Party candidate far more popular than his rival Hillary Clinton.

We now ask: Would Donald Trump, a businessman who built casinos and hotels, be good for this industry?

“It’s hard to say if Donald Trump would help the lumber and building material industry or not,” said Ben Gann, the vice president of legislative and political affairs for the National Lumber & Building Material Dealers Association (NLBMDA). “Unlike most presidential candidates Trump does not have a record as a legislator or governor. Trump’s public positions on issues such as minimum wage, taxing hedge fund managers and changes to the Affordable Care Act suggest he cannot easily be characterized as pro-business or anti-business.”

Trump has laid out some of his positioning statements on donaldjtrump.com, his official campaign website.

 His positioning statement on tax reform, for example, is to slash the corporate income-tax rate from 35% to 15%. Trump noted on his site that a lower tax rate needs to help the small businesses “that are the true engine of our economy.”

Trump also promises to reclaim millions of American jobs and revive American manufacturing by “putting an end to China’s illegal export subsidies and lax labor and environmental standards.” He proposes to protect American ingenuity and investment by forcing China to uphold intellectual property laws and stop their “unfair and unlawful practice of forcing U.S. companies to share proprietary technology with Chinese competitors as a condition of entry to China’s market.”

Ken Dunham, executive director of the West Coast Lumber and Building Material Association, said that at this point—six months before the election—the trade association does not have an official position on either Trump or Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic choice. “The issue on who to support has not come up but things change daily and maybe as the summer goes on there will be some discussion,” Dunham said. “Historically, this association is more attracted to Republicans, which is no surprise to anybody. But this is going to be unusual. We haven’t seen a situation like this.”

Dunham, who has run for office and been involved in political campaigns in Montana, said the presidential campaign historically is a process that occurs outside the confines of day-to-day business activities; as such, it is business as usual for the time being. “Obviously everyone is keeping an eye on what comes out of this and how it will affect taxes, regulations, law, direction of the country,” he said.

Gann said the NLBMDA opposes tariffs, export quotas and other trade restrictions that constrain the availability of products demanded by customers and drive up the cost of housing to the detriment of prospective homebuyers and consumers. “Trump has proposed cutting taxes and if that were to happen NLBMDA hopes the lumber and building material industry would also benefit. Regardless of who is elected president this fall, the next administration needs to reduce the regulatory burden on small businesses.”

As a real estate developer, Trump has come into contact with some members of the building supply industry. One industry voice who did not want to be quoted said Trump earned a reputation for “screwing every contractor and dealer. He negotiated prices down and then wouldn’t pay his bills.”

Bryant Simon, a professor at Temple University, whose book “Boardwalk of Dreams” chronicles the history of Atlantic City, including Trump’s business dealings there, said business owners who worked on the Taj Mahal were often paid 10 cents to 20 cents on the dollar in the bankruptcy. That included building contractors and other service providers, according to Simon.

Still, polls surveying small businesses continue to favor Trump’s candidacy. Manta, a social networking site for small business owners, revealed that Trump has repeatedly come out on top in its polls. In a survey asking about both major parties conducted at the end of February 2016, Trump won with 34%; Clinton was second with 17%. OnDeck, an online lending platform specializing in loans to small businesses, found in April that 37% of its small business owner felt Trump was the most likely candidate in either party to keep their interests in mind.