AHMA confidence index up slightly in February

The AHMA Home Improvement Industry Confidence Index recovered slightly in February, with the Current Situation Index up 16.7 points from January’s all-time low of 45.8, and the Future Expectations Index up 29.3 points to 156.9.

In comparing current levels to 2008 levels, 15 percent of respondents said sales were higher in February versus year-ago levels, compared with 11 percent in January. For February, 15 percent reported sales were even, and 69 percent said sales were below year-ago levels.

Looking forward six months, 29 percent of February respondents said they expect sales to be above current levels -- up from 24 percent in January -- while 40 percent said they expect sales to be even in six months, and 31 percent expect sales to be below current levels.

Looking forward one year, 62 percent project sales will be higher, up from 50 percent in January; 25 percent project sales will be even; and 12 percent expect sales will be below current levels.

Timothy S. Farrell, president and CEO of the American Hardware Manufacturers Association (AHMA), said the recessionary environment -- complicated by the unknown effects of the recently passed stimulus package -- has AHMA members operating in an atmosphere of tremendous uncertainty.

"They feel confident in their ability to increase sales and profits in the mid- to long-term; however many of them are cautiously following new regulations and policies out of Washington in the hope that manufacturing businesses will not be adversely affected," he said.

The February Confidence Index survey asked two supplemental questions of AHMA members: "How has your confidence in the Obama administration's ability to improve the economy changed since the inauguration?" and "Do you think the Economic Stimulus Package currently being enacted in Washington will be effective in improving the economy?"

To the first question, 6 percent responded that their confidence had "increased," 56 percent responded "no change," and 39 percent responded "decreased." On the Economic Stimulus Package, 18 percent responded "yes," 44 percent responded "unsure," and 38 percent responded "no."

The AHMA Home Improvement Industry Confidence Index is a monthly indicator of the economic health and "mood" of the industry based on a survey of AHMA members.