NAR issues home sales projections for 2024

The NAR said the U.S. GDP could grow by 1.5% and avoid a recession.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has released its latest existing-home sales projections for 2023 and 2024.

According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, projects existing-home sales will rise by 13.5% to 4.71 million units sold in 2024 from a total of 4.1 million in 2023. The economist also expects the median home price to increase by 0.9% to $389,500.

“Metro markets in southern states will likely outperform others due to faster job increases, while markets in the Midwest will experience gains from being in the most affordable region,” Yun said in a release issued by the NAR.

Yun also said that rent prices will calm down further in 2024, which will hold down the consumer price index. He predicts foreclosure rates will stay at historically low levels in 2024, comprising less than 1% of all mortgages.

Additional forecasts from Yun include the U.S. GDP growing by 1.5% and avoiding a recession. But he also said new job additions will slow to 1.7 million next year compared to 2.7 million in 2023 and 4.8 million in 2022.

There is good news on the mortgage front, according to the NAR. After hitting the 8% mark in late 2023, mortgage rates should average around 6.3% in 2024.

Lower rates could also provide a boon for remodeling activity as many homeowners have held off major projects.

Lawrence Yun

Regarding housing starts, Yun is forecasting 1.48 million units in 2024. This includes 1.04 million single-family starts and 440,000 multifamily starts.

The NAR has also identified 10 real estate markets with the most pent-up housing demand, which it expects to outperform other metro areas in 2024. In order, the markets are as follows:

Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, Texas
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas
Dayton-Kettering, Ohio
Durham-Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pennsylvania
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas
Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tennessee
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Delaware-Maryland
Portland-South Portland, Maine
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Virginia-Maryland-West Virginia

“The demand for housing will recover from falling mortgage rates and rising income,” Yun said. “In addition, housing inventory is expected to rise by around 30% as more sellers begin to list after delaying selling over the past two years. The selected top 10 U.S. markets will experience faster recovery in home sales.”