Lumber, tariffs and pricing

Little described the lumber market currently as "in a relative  phase of stabilization."

He added that "2023 was really the supply price correction, and now 2024 is kind of building the foundation for that next cyclical move. We're not ready to totally  confirm that move yet.

I think the the question that remains to be seen is: is 2025 the beginning of the next bull cycle. And there's a lot of things that are telling us that we might be very close to that.

Turning to tariffs and potential tariffs, Little said there seems to be a lot of confusion in the marketplace today.  "Many don't know it but in lumber, we've been in a tariff situation," he said. "This is not new news to us. We've been either having a tariff quota or an anti dumping duty or otherwise since 1982. I think the most recent move  this past year where we saw tariffs double after the softwood lumber agreement expiration. I think that had a lot of people  confused. And  in addition to that, many don't realize that they are likely going to double again as we move into 2025— particularly the second half of 2025."

Little concluded: "So could we see a short squeeze ahead? We are leaning towards that particularly as we see supply side challenges with the reduced supply over the last 18 months of roughly 3 billion board feet."

# # #

Little is slated to speak during the upcoming LBM CEO Summit in New York City Jan. 28-29. The event is hosted by HBSDealer and The Misura Group.