Industry sales sag in January

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2024 were $700.3 billion, down 0.8% from the previous month but up 0.6 percent above January 2023.

The decrease was a larger decline than originally anticipated by the financial world.

The latest Advanced Monthly Retail Report from the U.S. Census Bureau, released this morning, is adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes,

Total sales for the November 2023 through January 2024 period were up 3.1% from the same period a year ago. The November 2023 to December 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.6% to a 0.4% increase;

Estimated monthly sales at building supply and lawn and garden dealers, NAICS 444, fell 6.4% on a year-over-year basis compared to January 2023.

Monthly retail sales for hardware stores (NAICS 4413) were flat in December 2023 compared to the prior month.

Retail trade sales were down 1.1% from December 2023, and down 0.2% below last year. Nonstore retailers were up 6.4% from last year while food services and drinking places were up 6.3%.

January’s core retail sales as defined by the National Retail Federation (NRF) – based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants – were down 0.8% from December but up 2.8% year over year. Core retail sales were up 3.2% unadjusted year over year on a three-month moving average as of January.

The NRF’s take on the report is that consumers “continued to spend.”

“Retail sales softened in January compared with the holiday season, but consumers were still engaged,” said Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “Extreme weather likely disrupted product demand and consumption patterns. January prices for goods came down, which affects sales figures even if the same number of items are sold, and increased prices for services pulled dollars away from retail purchases. Nonetheless, January’s numbers point to the U.S. economy and labor market continuing to chug along.”