After slow year, NAHB remains positive

Las Vegas -- The National Association of Home Builders' chief economist delivered a handful of reasons why 2015 will be better than 2014. He also delivered a rosy forecast for 2015 single-family housing growth --  26% over last year.

According to the NAHB's forecast, shared here during the 2015 Housing & Economic Outlook press conference, single-family starts will increase from 641,000 to 804,000. Multi-family housing starts are expected to grow from 352,000 to 358,000.

Economist and fellow panelist David Berson of Nationwide Insurance was less optimistic. "Twenty-six percent? I hope you're right," he said. "I think it's probably aggressive, but I hope you're right."

The NAHB has been aggressive before. A year ago, the NAHB forecast 2014 housing starts to grow in excess of 20% to 1.15 million. They finished up about 8%.

"Unfortunately, last year wasn't all that great," Crowe said.

But Crowe's convinced that 2015 will be better, pointing to economic growth, employment gains (especially among the key cohort of young adults), rising household income, and the general housing market growth factor known as "pent-up demand."

Other growth factors include the three-year rise of homeowners' home equity, the increase in inventory of available homes and improving situation of mortgage availability.  

Frank Nothaft, chief economist for Freddie Mac, offered a more tempered forecast for starts -- up 15%. Home sales, he added, are expected to increase 4%. If that happens, it would be the best year for home sales since 2007.