Consumer Confidence Index slips
Consumer research released Tuesday morning found that fewer consumers said that business conditions were good, but fewer also said they were bad.
The finding from the New York based economic think tank The Conference Board was part of a report that found the closely watched Consumer Confidence Index declined again in September to 103.0 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 108.7 in August.
The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose slightly to 147.1 (1985=100) from 146.7. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined to 73.7 (1985=100) in September, after falling to 83.3 in August.
Expectations fell back below 80—the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Consumer fears of an impending recession also ticked back up, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction we anticipate for the first half of 2024.
“Consumer confidence fell again in September 2023, marking two consecutive months of decline,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “September’s disappointing headline number reflected another decline in the Expectations Index, as the Present Situation Index was little changed. Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups, and notably among consumers with household incomes of $50,000 or more.”
Other findings from the Conference Board:
• 14.1% of consumers expect business conditions to improve, down from 17.5% in August. Meanwhile, 18.4% expect business conditions to worsen, up from 17.3%.
• 15.5% of consumers expect more jobs to be available, down from 17.5% in August. 18.9% anticipate fewer jobs, up from 18.0%.
• 16.3% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, down from 18.7% in August. Moreover, 14.4% expect their incomes will decrease, up from 11.9% last month.
