Retail sales rose in March
New data from the National Retail Federation shows U.S. retail sales rose slightly in March after two straight months of declines. Building and garden supply stores were down 0.81 percent month over month (seasonally adjusted) but up 0.78 percent year over year unadjusted.
March's overall gains are modest, and the good news is also tempered by consumer concerns regarding tariffs, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor.
“Retail sales increased in March but only moderately, and the spending came before the president’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “The pullback we’ve seen the past few months comes despite strong economic fundamentals. A major factor appears to be driven by the uncertainty caused by tariffs. March’s increase is partly the result of stocking up to get ahead of tariffs. With the economic outlook unclear and the situation fluid, consumer sentiment is weakening, and many consumers are shifting disposable income into savings.”
The March results reflect consumer spending that came after President Trump announced tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico in February but before he announced a minimum 10 percent tariff on all U.S trading partners on April 2 along with “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries.
The reciprocal tariffs have been suspended for 90 days, but additional tariffs on China have resulted in back-and-forth escalation between China and the U.S. Even before that, however, a survey conducted for NRF found 46 percent of consumers said they were stocking up on household appliances, clothing and other items in early March because they were worried they would become more expensive because of tariffs.
March sales were up across the board on a yearly basis, led by digital products, general merchandise stores, and sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores. Sales were up in five out of nine categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:
- Digital products were up 0.79% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 27.62% year over year unadjusted.
- General merchandise stores were up 0.48% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 7.62% year over year unadjusted.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were unchanged month over month seasonally adjusted but up 6.63% year over year unadjusted.
- Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.29% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 5.94% year over year unadjusted.
- Health and personal care stores were down 0.44% month over month seasonally adjusted but up 5.39% year over year unadjusted.
- Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.65% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 3.05% year over year unadjusted.
- Clothing and accessories stores were up 0.76% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 2.37% year over year unadjusted.
- Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 0.01% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 1.81% year over year unadjusted.
NRF differentiates its data from survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, noting that its Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually. You can get more retail data from March 2025 here.
