Numbers game: Time to pick up the pace

After three months of relatively disappointing housing starts updates (we’ve yet to crack a million as a seasonally adjusted annual rate), the total unadjusted tally for the first quarter stands at 209,100. Sure it’s the best start in six years, but it’s just slightly better than 2013’s first quarter. The industry was expecting more.



The National Association of Home Builders started the year with an aggressive forecast of 24.5% growth in total starts. After a snowy and frozen winter, there is certainly time to make up ground. But can that much growth be found in the remaining nine months?



A look at the past 10 years shows a pretty consistent ratio of first-quarter starts to full-year starts. At the low end, 2012’s first quarter accounted for 19.8% of the starts. In 2006, the first quarter was a full 25.8% of the year’s total.



If 2014 plays out along those percentages, the total would fall in a range of 810,400 to 1,056,000. It’s time to pick up the pace.