Nowhere to go but up

San Diego -- Alan Beaulieu, executive VP of the Institute of Trend Research, delivered a sobering forecast on Oct. 23 to the Lumber Association of California and Nevada (LACN): inflation will gradually rise, and the dollar will continue to weaken in 2010, resulting in much higher lumber prices in 2011 and the possible collapse of the dollar.

Dealers should re-evaluate their inventory needs next year, Beaulieu said, and consider increasing their stock at pre-inflation prices. Housing starts will fall to 500,000 to 550,000 annual units in 2010, he predicted, before slowly climbing back up in 2011. Expect the feds to raise interest rates, Beaulieu added.

But not all the news was troubling. The economist predicted an uptick in remodeling based on figures from the Harvard Joint Centers on Housing Studies and his own research. “We’ve gone through a trough, and now we’re on an ascent,” he said.

Beaulieu offered the California dealers several suggestions for keeping their profits -- and their businesses -- intact, ending with the now familiar “Hope is not a strategy” refrain. Other speakers at the two-day event, held at the historic U.S. Grant Hotel, pointed out various regulatory or legal potholes that marked the road ahead. Attorney Laura Innes covered recent court decisions on sexual harassment, gender discrimination in hiring, ADA compliance and the definition of a “hostile work environment.”

Now would be a good time to review sales commission agreements, including chargeback policies, Innes advised. “There’s been a lot of case law on commissions in the last two years, so it might be time to look at them again,” she said.

The event ended with an officers’ installation dinner where Laurie Vance of The Mill Yard was named the new association president.