National Association of Home Builders forecast is close, but no cigar

Back in January, the National Association of Home Builders forecast 1,162,000 total starts for 2015 and 804,000 single-family starts — annual increases of 16% and 24%.



Close, but no cigar.



With 11 months in the books, and assuming December’s numbers will resemble November’s numbers, the industry is looking at a likely unadjusted total of roughly 1,122,300 housing starts, and a single-famIly mark of 718,200. Those numbers represent annual gains of about 11% over 2014.



Can the industry provide another year of significant residential construction gains in 2016, even as interest rates appear to be bouncing up from historic lows? Many think so, and here’s why: the time-tested principle of reversion to the mean. If more than 50 years of data show an annual housing starts average of 1.5 million, then it’s a good bet that the industry is going to cross that line eventually. And we’re not even close.



Look for more forecasts online at HBSDealer.com.