All eyes on Thursday's starts release

At 8:30 a.m. Thursday, the Commerce Department will release new residential construction data for March. The closely watched housing-starts figure will be scrutinized more than usual this month, as even a slight increase from February's near-record-low would indicate two consecutive upticks and possibly the early stages of a sustained comeback.

While the housing industry and their suppliers could use some good news right about now, analysts participating in Briefing.com are expecting March's seasonally adjusted annual rate to be anywhere from 500,000 to 580,000 -- down from February's actual rate of 583,000.

Putting the numbers in perspective: January's rate of 477,000 was the lowest since the government began keeping track in 1959. February's rate is the second-lowest on record and down from a 1.107 million rate a year ago.

For more perspective, the total number of unadjusted single-family starts in February (not expressed as an annual rate) was 24,600, that's not even half of the 51,900 recorded in February 2008. Only January 2009 was lower -- 22,400 single-family starts.

Optimists in the industry pin their hopes for rising starts on increasing affordability, pent-up demand and population growth mixed with two years or more of under-building. Pessimists counter with rising foreclosures and employment concerns, among other things.