RISI Crow’s Market Recap for April 20

A price index of lumber and panels used in actual construction for April 20, 2018.

Western: regional species perimeter foundation
Southern: regional species slab construction

Crow's Market Recap: A condensed recap of the market conditions for the major North American softwood lumber and panel products as reported in Crow's Weekly Market Report.


Lumber

To the astonishment of many, SPF lumber prices continued to climb. Producers reported strong sales and particularly fervent demand for 2x4. In the West, producers carried lead times extending into the middle of May. Futures continued to gain, trying to keep pace with cash. A strong US housing construction report further buoyed confidence in the market.

• Momentum built in Southern Pine, propelling many prices higher and firming others. Nice weather throughout the Southeast prompted stronger sales out of yards. As inventories eroded, buyers discovered tighter availability at mills and stronger order files.


• Prices were mixed in Coastal species, generally split between green Doug Fir and dry prices. Mills reported a moderate improvement in green Doug Fir demand at midweek, but prices remained spongy. Dry prices continued to carry light to moderate strength.


• While most of the Inland office staffs were on their way to Phoenix, the market was reported to be active and trying to recover some of the prices that had slipped away. But it was not a strongly convincing argument. Sufficient bad weather still hung over enough of the nation to keep deliveries hung up.


• Stud activity, perceptions and prices were mixed across species. Much of the strength was centered around 2x4, while some 2x6 prices dipped. Light availability sometimes outweighed limited demand, buoying prices.


• Ponderosa Pine industrials in general were as good as any segment of the pine markets, but nothing showed much power. Both 5/4 and 6/4 Mldg&Btr remained stable in price. The Ponderosa Pine Selects and Commons markets went quiet. Selective discounting took place, depending on how much a supplier needed to move a given volume, but no general or strong discounting.


• Buyers and sellers of Western Red Cedar reported little change in the overall marketplace. Supplies of some items, such as timbers and rough dimension, remained tight while products such as decking and other tight knot items were more readily available.

Panels

No general consensus existed concerning OSB; some said the market was hanging flat, while others mentioned “some sloppy numbers.” What everyone agreed on was the sure effect of the sunshine.

• After a modest beginning to the week, demand for Southern Pine rated sheathing increased markedly. After running inventories low and seeing some firming take place the week prior, buyers stepped in to replenish after running inventories low. Mills extended order files out into the weeks of May 7 and 14.


• Western Fir plywood mills reported steady to better sales activity. After a slow start, mills noted a pickup in activity. While the added interest from customers was encouraging for producers and firmed some quotes, mills still sold some CDX at price levels a few dollars below those established the week prior.


• Cases could be made for a number of scenarios regarding Canadian plywood. A number of industry participants are adequately served simply to let prices remain unchanged. At least two key producers, however, have tacked on 2 additional points and run their order files out at least another week.


• Particleboard remains overproduced for the amount of consumption in the marketplace. This was again demonstrated by soft pricing and discounting.


• MDF producers reported steady sales, keeping order files booked into mid-May.

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