AHMA Confidence Index shows mixed results

The American Hardware Manufacturers Association’s September Industry Confidence Index’s Current Situation Index fell 45.9 points to 45.8 from 91.7 in August, but the Future Expectations Index rose 20.7 points to an all-time high of 191.4 when compared with 170.7 in August.

For September, 11% of respondents said sales were up, compared with 22% in August. The survey also indicated 17% said sales were even, and 72% said sales were below year-ago levels, up from 68% in August.

Looking forward six months, the index showed 44% of respondents predict sales will increase, up from 31% in August, and 39% saw sales remaining even, with 17% expecting sales to decrease.

Looking forward one year, the index showed 67% of respondents predict sales will increase, down from 68% in August, and 30% saw sales remaining even, with just 4% expecting sales to decrease.

"The fact that our members' month-over-month sales continue to disappoint mirrors the most recent report from the Department of Commerce on retail sales, which shows hardware/home improvement product sales down 12% from last year on a year-to-date basis," said AHMA president and CEO Timothy Farrell. "On the plus side, this month's survey also points to strong optimism for improvement looking forward six to 12 months, indicating that the long downward slide in sales may be positioned for a reversal," Farrell added.

The index also touched on "hot topic" issues. First, it asked members "What percent of the products sold by your company are manufactured in the United States?" Nine percent responded, "None;" 20% responded, "Less than 50%;" 50% responded, "More than 50%;" and 20% responded, "100%."

In response to the question "How important is it to you that your company's products be perceived by the end-user as environmentally friendly?" 28% responded, "Little importance;" 57% responded, "Important;" and 15% responded, "Very important."

The index is a monthly indicator of the economic health and "mood" of the industry based on a survey of AHMA members.